|
|
Polling Data - White House 2004 Democrats
Dates: April, 2003 - to previous
All data are from nationwide surveys of Americans 18 & older.
Polls listed chronologically.
| ABC
News/Washington Post Poll.
April 27-30, 2003. N=1,105 adults nationwide. Results shown are
among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Fieldwork
by TNS Intersearch. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
"If
the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in your state were
being held today, and the candidates were [see
below],
for whom would you vote?" Options
were rotated |
|
|
|
% |
|
|
. |
|
Joseph Lieberman |
29 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
19 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
6 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| CNN/USA
Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: April 22-23, 2003.
N=386 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered
to vote. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Next,
I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the
Democratic primary for president in the next election. After
I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates
you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination
for president in the year 2004. . . ." |
|
|
4/22-23/03 |
3/14-15/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
22 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
18 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
16 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
8 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
6 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
5 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
3 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
No one |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
9 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| Marist
College Poll. Latest: April 15-16, 2003. N=301 Democrats
and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide. MoE ± 5.5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "If the next Democratic presidential
primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates
are . . . ?" |
|
|
4/03 |
2/03 |
1/03 |
10/02 |
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Joseph Lieberman |
17 |
18 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
13 |
8 |
9 |
18 |
|
|
John Kerry |
10 |
14 |
14 |
6 |
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
4 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
Gary Hart |
3 |
6 |
5 |
n/a |
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
3 |
6 |
n/a |
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
|
Undecided |
39 |
42 |
35 |
38 |
|
|
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
10 |
|
|
| NBC
News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Latest:
April 12-13, 2003. N=241 Democrats or non-Democrats who said
they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Let
me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination
for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary for
president were being held today, for which one of the following
candidates would you vote: [see below]?" If "Not
sure," ask: "Well, which way do
you lean?" |
|
|
4/03 |
1/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
19 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
14 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
4 |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
3 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
14 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
23 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
| CNN/USA
Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: March 14-15, 2003.
N=420 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered
to vote. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Next,
I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the
Democratic primary for president in the next election. After
I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates
you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination
for president in the year 2004. . . .
"If
Hillary Clinton DOES NOT run for the Democratic nomination for
president in 2004, please tell me which of those candidates you
would be most likely to support for the nomination. . . ." |
|
|
With
Clinton |
Without
Clinton |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton |
28 |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
16 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
13 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
11 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
3 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Other |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
No one |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
No opinion |
11 |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| Zogby
America Poll. March 5-7, 2003. N=515 likely Democratic
voters nationwide. MoE ±
4.4. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "If
the Democratic primary for president were held today and the
candidates were [see
below], for whom would
you vote?" |
|
|
3/5-7/03 |
1/24-26/03 |
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
18 |
21 |
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
11 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
9 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
4 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Gary Hart |
3 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
1 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Carol Moseley Braun |
1 |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
n/a |
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
- |
- |
|
|
|
|
Other |
7 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
37 |
33 |
|
|
|
|
FOX
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Latest: Feb. 25-26, 2003.
N=369 registered Democrats nationwide. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"I'm
going to read you a list of names of some possible candidates
for the Democratic nomination for president in the next election.
If a 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, which
ONE of the following candidates would you most likely vote for?" If
"Not sure," ask: "Well,
to whom do you lean at this time?" |
| |
|
2/25-26/03 |
1/14-15/03 |
|
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
16 |
15 |
|
|
|
| |
Joe Lieberman |
15 |
29 |
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
10 |
13 |
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
6 |
8 |
|
|
|
| |
Carol Moseley-Braun |
5 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
4 |
2 |
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
4 |
5 |
|
|
|
| |
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Someone else/Other (vol.) |
5 |
8 |
|
|
|
| |
Not sure |
33 |
20 |
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Feb. 19-20, 2003.
N=549 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic
nationwide. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Thinking
ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked to
vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president today,
which of the following Democrats would you vote for? . . ." |
| |
|
2/19-20/03 |
1/15-16/03 |
|
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
16 |
21 |
|
|
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
10 |
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
8 |
11 |
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
7 |
12 |
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
7 |
2 |
|
|
|
| |
Carol Moseley-Braun |
4 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
| |
Bob Graham |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
| |
Dennis Kucinich |
2 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Other |
7 |
11 |
|
|
|
| |
Not sure |
30 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
| Marist
College Poll. Latest: Feb. 11-13, 2003. N=344 Democrats
and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide. MoE ± 5.5. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "If the next Democratic presidential
primary were held today, whom would you support if the candidates
are . . . ?" |
| |
|
2/03 |
1/03 |
10/02 |
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
18 |
20 |
21 |
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
14 |
14 |
6 |
|
|
| |
Richard Gephardt |
8 |
9 |
18 |
|
|
| |
Gary Hart |
6 |
5 |
n/a |
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
5 |
3 |
3 |
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
4 |
7 |
3 |
|
|
| |
Bob Graham |
3 |
6 |
n/a |
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
- |
1 |
1 |
|
|
| |
Undecided |
42 |
35 |
38 |
|
|
| |
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
n/a |
10 |
|
|
|
Quinnipiac
University Poll. Jan. 29-Feb. 3, 2003. N=441 Democratic
voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.7. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now
I'm going to name six Democrats who might run for president
in 2004. After I read all six names, tell me which one you
would most like to see the Democrats
nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices . . .
." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Suppose
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for
president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats
nominate for president in 2004? . . ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
15 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
11 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Don't know |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
The
Los Angeles Times Poll. Jan. 30-Feb. 2, 2003. N=399
registered Democrats nationwide. MoE ± 5
(total sample). |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
|
"I am now going to mention a list of Democrats
who have either declared themselves a candidate for president
in 2004 or have formed an exploratory committee to decide whether
they will run for president. I realize that the first caucus
and primary are more than a year away, but if the Democratic
primary or caucus for president were being held in your state
today, and the candidates were [see below], for whom would
you vote [see below]?"
|
|
|
ALL |
Men |
Women |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
25 |
12 |
35 |
|
|
|
John Kerry |
20 |
24 |
17 |
|
|
|
John Edwards |
8 |
9 |
8 |
|
|
|
Gary Hart |
8 |
10 |
6 |
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
6 |
8 |
4 |
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
7 |
5 |
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
|
|
Someone else (vol.) |
- |
1 |
- |
|
|
|
Don't know |
24 |
24 |
23 |
|
|
|
| Zogby
America Poll. Jan. 24-26, 2003. N=399 likely Democratic
voters nationwide. MoE ±
5. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "If
the Democratic primary for president were held today and the
candidates were [see
below], for whom would
you vote?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Dick Gephardt |
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
7 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gary Hart |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
Wesley Clark |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Other |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Undecided |
33 |
|
|
|
|
|
Ipsos-Reid/Cook
Political Report Poll. Jan. 7-9 & 21-23,
2003. N=454 registered voters nationwide who
are Democrats
or Democratic-leaning independents and who said that they
plan to participate in their state's 2004 Democratic presidential
primary or caucus. MoE ±
4.6. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"It
is early, but if you had to choose today, which ONE of the following
seven candidates would you be most likely to support for the
Democratic nomination for president? .
. ." |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton
(vol.) |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not sure |
24 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decided to seek the
Democratic nomination for president, would you continue to
support [response from question above] or would you
prefer to support Hillary Rodham Clinton?"
Recalculated preference: |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
|
Hillary Rodham Clinton |
46 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
4 |
|
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
Other/None/Not sure |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
| NBC
News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling
organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R). Jan. 19-21,
2003. N=1,025 adults nationwide. These questions were asked of
Democrats, as well as non-Democrats who said they would vote
in a Democratic presidential primary. |
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Let
me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination
for president in 2004. If the next Democratic primary
for president were being held today, which one of the following
candidates would you vote for: [see below]?" If "Not
sure," ask: "Well, which way
do you lean?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
25 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
17 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
14 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
7 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
6 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
None (vol.) |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Other (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"If
Hillary Clinton decided to run for the Democratic presidential
nomination in 2004, and if the next Democratic primary for president
were being held today, which one of these same candidates would
you vote for: [see
below]?" If "Not sure," ask: "Well,
which way do you lean?" |
|
|
% |
|
|
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
39 |
|
|
|
|
Joe Lieberman |
13 |
|
|
|
|
Richard Gephardt |
10 |
|
|
|
|
John Kerry |
8 |
|
|
|
|
John Edwards |
5 |
|
|
|
|
Bob Graham |
4 |
|
|
|
|
Howard Dean |
2 |
|
|
|
|
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
None/Other
(vol.) |
3 |
|
|
|
|
Not sure |
14 |
|
|
|
|
ABC
News/Washington Post Poll. Latest:
Jan. 16-20, 2003. N=1,133 adults nationwide. Results shown
are among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Fieldwork
by TNS Intersearch. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Suppose
your state holds a Democratic primary or caucus for president
in 2004 and the candidates are [see below] --
for whom would you vote?" If "Don't
know": "Which one
are you leaning toward right now?" |
| |
|
1/03 |
7/02 |
|
|
|
| |
|
% |
% |
|
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
27 |
21 |
|
|
|
| |
Richard Gephardt |
14 |
13 |
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
11 |
7 |
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
10 |
10 |
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
7 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
3 |
3 |
|
|
|
| |
Other (vol.) |
1 |
4 |
|
|
|
| |
None (vol.) |
4 |
n/a |
|
|
|
| |
Don't know |
24 |
29 |
|
|
|
| |
Tom Daschle |
n/a |
14 |
|
|
|
|
Newsweek Poll conducted
by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 16-17, 2003. N=334
registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide.
MoE ±
6. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Now
I'm going to name eight Democrats who might run for president
in 2004. After I read all eight names, tell me which ONE you
would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in
2004. Here are the choices . . . ." Options
rotated |
| |
|
% |
|
|
|
|
| |
Joe Lieberman |
22 |
|
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
14 |
|
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
13 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
6 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Gary Hart |
5 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Bob Graham |
5 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
4 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Other (vol.) |
1 |
|
|
|
|
| |
None (vol.) |
4 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Don't know |
13 |
|
|
|
|
|
Time/CNN
Poll conducted by Harris Interactive. Jan. 15-16, 2003.
N=382 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic
nationwide. MoE ±
5.1. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Thinking
ahead to the 2004 presidential election, if you were asked
to vote for a Democratic presidential nominee for president
today, which of the following Democrats would you vote for?
. . ." |
| |
|
% |
|
|
|
|
| |
Joseph Lieberman |
21 |
|
|
|
|
| |
John Edwards |
12 |
|
|
|
|
| |
John Kerry |
11 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
10 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Howard Dean |
3 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Bob Graham |
3 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
2 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Other |
11 |
|
|
|
|
| |
Not sure |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
FOX
News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Jan. 14-15, 2003. N=900
registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3 (total sample). |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
| "I'm
going to read you a list of names of some possible candidates
for the Democratic nomination for president in the next election. If
a 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, which
of the following candidates would you most likely vote for?" If
"Not sure," ask: "Well, to whom do you lean?" |
| |
|
ALL |
Demo-
crats |
Repub-
licans |
Indepen-
dents |
|
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| |
Joe Lieberman |
23 |
29 |
18 |
28 |
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
15 |
14 |
8 |
|
| |
John Kerry |
12 |
13 |
8 |
17 |
|
| |
John Edwards |
9 |
8 |
11 |
8 |
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
3 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
|
| |
Howard Dean |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
|
| |
Someone else/Other (vol.) |
14 |
8 |
21 |
11 |
|
| |
Not sure |
24 |
20 |
24 |
24 |
|
|
| CNN/USA
Today/Gallup Poll. Latest: Jan. 10-12, 2003.
N=391 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide who are registered
to vote. MoE ±
5. |
| |
|
|
|
|
. |
|
"Next,
I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic
primary for president in the next election. After I read all
the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be
most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president
in the year 2004 . . . ." |
| |
|
1/10-12/03 |
1/3-5/03 |
12/02 |
11/02 |
|
| |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
| |
Joe Lieberman |
19 |
18 |
25 |
12 |
|
| |
John Kerry |
17 |
17 |
21 |
12 |
|
| |
Dick Gephardt |
13 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
|
| |
John Edwards |
12 |
14 |
5 |
4 |
|
| |
Bob Graham |
6 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| |
Gary Hart |
6 |
n/a |
n/a |
n/a |
|
| |
Al Sharpton |
4 |
4 |
4 |
n/a |
|
| |
Howard Dean |
4 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
|
| |
Other |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
| |
No one |
5 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
|
| |
Undecided |
|
